Odaily Editorial Team Tea Talk (December 31st)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their peripheral details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under validation—these may not be direct wealth codes, but could simply be the questions themselves; shares observations gained from exchanges with industry practitioners; and materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to manufacture consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Discussion Group, X Official Account) to exchange, question, and banter together.

Hao Fangzhou

Introduction: I want to go long on the future.

Share: When predicting how far a market can go, how big it can get, how compelling its narrative is, and who it will ultimately replace, the most worthwhile discussion is—what topics to list. Then comes—product form, degree of derivation, regulatory attitude, and capital power (recommended reading: 《Why Prediction Markets Are Truly Not Gambling Platforms》), which together determine its historical significance and scale boundaries.

Let's try induction:

(1) First, list them: Hypothesize who becomes president - public opinion polling platform, who wins a match - sports betting platform, price movements - financial derivatives, entertainment gossip - cultural sentiment echo chamber...

· Listing is for further categorization and benchmarking against existing mature markets.

(2) Then, converge: The scope of public relevance (e.g., what geographical area, how much does an election in Country X affect people outside Country X, the international impact of regional wars), the ethical line of financializing online topics (which things can be "bet" on, and why those that cannot be bet on are off-limits), the future (what timeframe, how far into the future), whether the possibility of outcomes still needs to strictly conform to a deterministic classification (to reduce adjudication ambiguity and manipulation)...

· Convergence is to define "what topics are worth listing" and "what topics have the operational feasibility for accurately adjudicating results and possess inherent anti-manipulation properties," establishing the current ceiling, rather than confusing future tenses and lacking high aspirations.

(3) Finally, diverge: Casually throw out a direction; what's so impressive about predicting things humans can decide? Can prediction markets predict tsunamis and earthquakes? Use the counterparty funds raised to develop citizen science DeSci.

· Divergence is to break down value isolation and then imagine the ultimate vision of prediction markets.

Currently, prediction markets aren't growing large, mostly due to reflexive self-justification within cognitive barriers, because they lack externality—the capital flow from prediction markets' small funds doesn't spill over to events, and their influence and capital scale are far from enough to make external parties enter the market to control outcomes for that money.

The branching line of thought after "what topics to list" is: who decides what topics to list. This triggers → the necessity and scale of centralized intervention, what balance point rules should strike between stable trust and flexible freedom. Currently in the early stage, the optimal solution = first let "aesthetic hegemony" decide, then iterate in small steps, seeking survival & expansion between community and regulation.

p.s. There are too many new assets, diluting both buy-side pressure and investment research. Compared to 2024, in 2025 there's a lot of "sell upon receipt," not even knowing what the project does, let alone having the desire to "hold."

Bcxiongdi (X: @bcxiongdi )

Introduction: Mainly plays on-chain PvP

Share: Last week, liquidity in the Meme sector warmed up somewhat compared to previous weeks. Some golden dogs also appeared on-chain, like Whitewhale which even reached 73m, thenickshirley (ignited by Musk's political narrative) peaked at 9m, and another tweet where Musk interacted with toly, etc. Many performances were quite good. However, currently, on-chain liquidity is still generally average. It's normal to occasionally have a few golden dogs that break out. Personally, I choose to continue watching.

WLFI recently opened a new vote to accelerate the application of USD1, allowing bets on related targets.

jk (X: @0xHanzo)

Introduction: A long-termist who got badly hurt this quarter

Share: 1. New Year's resolution: Prepare to seriously learn Vibe coding, then handcraft some usable data tools, like a tool to capture price crashes, to facilitate quick short positions; this idea mainly came from seeing many products on X casually made with codex or cursor that actually greatly improved work efficiency.

This recent quote also resonated: Many say programmers now only use vibe coding, they don't write C or Java anymore, what should we do? But actually, a long time ago, people asked the same question: Young people now only know how to write Java, they don't understand assembly language and computer principles anymore, what should we do? In fact, the way we give instructions to machines has been constantly innovating, from the initial assembly language, to programming languages, to the natural language of Vibe coding now. If it works, it's good.

2. This week's work mainly focused on writing some annual summary articles: Thinking carefully, 2025 was actually a very important year for institutionalization and crypto formalization, it's not an exaggeration to call it the first year of American crypto, but this was not reflected in price gains at all; including the current retracement of gains, we are actually experiencing a process where market cap increases but prices don't. This has somewhat shaken my belief in long-term holding.

3. Recent US regulatory news is too boring... It's all about what Trump says, what Musk says, and then the expected interest rate cut trend. As a news person, I somewhat miss last year and the year before, with the SBF trial dropping bombshells daily, the SEC suing this exchange today and that exchange tomorrow, the complaints full of highlights and talking points, Trump not yet in power, so much to look forward to. Of course, as a retail investor, I hope that year never returns.

Asher (X: @Asher_ 0210 )

Introduction: Mainly plays interactions + wealth management, occasionally buys Memes (buys but doesn't like to sell), bad at contracts but likes to participate

Share: Recent interactions, besides continuing to add new hot projects weekly, have focused on prediction markets on the BNB Chain ecosystem, trying to earn more points at the lowest possible cost, expecting a major boom in the prediction market sector in the first half of 2026.

On the spot side, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in extreme fear, continuing to DCA into mainstream alts ETH and SOL.

On the contract side, after PIPPIN spiked a "sky needle" at $0.76 last week and slowly declined, I believe the uptrend has ended. Already opened a short at $0.5, targeting $0.29 and $0.19.

Moni (@mich73692)

Introduction: Keep learning, keep striving

Share: Are there arbitrage opportunities with USDT? Perhaps. The OTC buy/sell price of the dollar stablecoin USDT has dropped to around 6.82 CNY, the speed of the decline is astonishing, while the USD price in the forex market remains at 7.01 CNY, with a negative premium as high as 2.7%, far exceeding the -2% premium rate at the beginning of the month. The arbitrage opportunity therein is "I dare not say, I dare not ask." Huang Qifan recently signaled that in the next decade, the RMB to USD exchange rate will gradually appreciate from 7.0 to around 6.0. One can only ponder this carefully.

This week, precious metals remain a hot topic, with gold and silver experiencing significant adjustments. Previous analysis suggested that once precious metal prices start to reverse, market funds would likely flow into Bitcoin and Ethereum, but so far, this trend has not yet appeared.

Unconsciously, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative premium for 17 consecutive days. This indicator has some reference significance, indicating that Bitcoin prices in the US market are relatively lower than the global market, with selling pressure still relatively high in North America, suggesting many investors are offloading.

2025 witnessed Bitcoin's dramatic surges and crashes, the rapid ups and downs were truly thrilling. This year is finally ending, and I miss it dearly.

Suzz (X: @uu01194636 )

Introduction: Still at post on New Year's Eve

Share: The CME "pulling the plug" incident on November 29th, market analysis points to short sellers facing liquidation pressure triggering the exchange's "downtime." Although the "conspiracy theory" is hard to verify, I did delve into analysis about data center high availability that day, regrettably missing out on this wave of silver's rise. Need to improve sensitivity to linked opportunities in the future.

Currently tracking the listing process of Zhipu AI (expected January 8th). Based on Peter Lynch's investment philosophy, after deeply using the GLM4.7 model, from product experience and cost-performance perspective, its practical application capabilities are very impressive, and considering current market valuations, it still has potential. Plan to deeply participate upon its official listing early next year, as a core allocation reserve for the AI sector.

Ding Dang (X: @XiaMiPP)

Introduction: Pure "retail investor"

Share: Recently took a break from trading thoughts, watching and learning more.

This week's silver frenzy is a market focus. Many claims on X say China is changing silver exports from the original quota system to "case-by-case approval," but it seems to be about strengthening audits and managing flows. The real reason for this surge is still a short squeeze triggered by options.

Recently came across the silver trading thoughts shared by Bridgewater's former commodities head, roughly: Need to stay calm now, short-term there's tax selling, USD rebound, margin pressure, etc., but will continue to increase holdings on pullbacks. The copper substitution talk is a bit scary, but doing the math, it would take at least four years to replace half of solar capacity. He believes silver still has further room to rise.

Precious metals are rising alternately, but the crypto market here is unusually quiet. Looking at Bitcoin's daily chart, it feels like it's nearing a critical turning point. Hope next year's market will be kinder to us.

golem (X: @web3_golem)

Introduction: Golem's whimsical thoughts

Content: Recently, top crypto exchanges have imitated Web2 internet products by launching 2025 annual reviews for users. Although such summaries are just for fun, some data still piqued my curiosity. For example, on Binance, my peak annual asset value was $3,363, but that still placed me ahead of 88% of holders. On OKX, having annual assets over $60,000 puts you above 95% of people.

This sounds shocking because, in my previous perception, a few thousand dollars shouldn't be considered money for crypto folks. That asset amount is something you'd only dare to open the exchange app hiding from friends, otherwise you'd be laughed at. Tens of thousands of dollars is certainly small money, but it shouldn't be the peak of the top 5%.

Of course, this data might be fake. Considering statistical methods, the sample might include a large number of long-inactive accounts, zero-balance accounts, accounts opened but never traded. If all these "zeros" are included, everyone's percentile ranking gets pulled up.

But what if it's true? Then it shows 2025 was actually a tough year. We've been numbed by the minority of top influencers on social media, KOLs who casually make or lose hundreds of thousands of dollars. They create an illusion of wealth in crypto, and for individuals, it creates a feeling that everyone is rich except me, making them even more afraid to challenge them on social media. Just like data tells us less than 20% of people on Polymarket have positive account P&L, but social media is full of wildly profitable prophets.

Those "always-profitable bloggers" and top accounts on social media are just "typical user" samples promoted by algorithms and human nature, not representative of the majority. From an investment perspective, if we constantly measure our own investments and decisions against the extreme outcomes of a minority, we might make riskier choices in the face of market volatility. The pathological mentality of feeling utterly unaccomplished if you haven't made A7, A8 should have been discarded long ago.

Speaking of prediction markets, in the new year, I plan to open two more Polymarket small accounts, mainly to boost trading volume for airdrops. Although boosting volume on Polymarket doesn't incur fee slippage, considering the shallow order books of prediction markets and large bid-ask spreads in some pools, achieving lossless trading seems like a hassle. So I think two more accounts are enough trouble for now.

Azuma (X: @azuma_eth)

Introduction: Noob, learning more

Share: Looked into the recently discussed issues of USDT discount and USDC premium, i.e., USDT trades at a discount relative to the official USD/CNY rate in OTC markets; simultaneously, USDC trades at a premium relative to USDT.

The first is easier to explain. Essentially, it's weakening demand for USDT on the USDT to CNY path. Reason one is疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲软疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟疲軟